Forex Storm

The final wrap up in the three part series on MACD

Part two of the three part series on MACD

Most technical analysis indicators are lagging. Let me show you how to use MACD properly and its Leading indicator values.

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http://www.informedtrades.com/ The second lesson of two on how to trade the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) for day traders and investors using technical analysis in the stock market, futures market, and forex market.

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In addition to being able to tell if the stock, futures contract, or currency you are analyzing is trending or not from simply looking at its price action on the chart, you can also use the MACD indicator. Very simply if the MACD line is at or close to the zero line, this indicates that the financial instrument you are analyzing is not exhibiting strong trending characteristics, and thus should not be traded using the MACD.

Example of Trending and Non Trending Markets

Once it is determined that the financial instrument you are analyzing is exhibiting trending characteristics, there are three ways that you can trade the MACD.

1. Positive and Negative Divergence
2. The MACD/Signal Line Crossover
3. The zero line crossover

Trading the MACD Divergence:

Divergence occurs when the direction of the MACD is not moving in the same direction of the financial instrument you are analyzing. This can be seen as an indication that the upward or downward momentum in the market is failing. Traders will thus look to trade the reversal of the trend and consider this signal particularly strong when the market is making a new high or low and the MACD is not.




Example of Negative Divergence:


Trading the MACD/Signal Crossover:

This is the simplest way to trade the MACD as it involves simply watching the MACD line and going long when the MACD line crosses below the signal line and going short when the MACD line crosses above the signal line. As this strategy generates the most signals, it also generates the most false signals, and the potential to get into a bad trade using just this method is high. For this reason traders will confirm the signals with other methods such as the chart patterns we have learned so far, volume etc.

Example of Using the MACD Crossover as Buy and Sell Signals

The MACD Zero Line Crossover:

The MACD zero line cross over occurs when the MACD crosses above or below the line plotted at point zero on the indicator. When this occurs it is an indication that market momentum has reversed direction. The strength of the move that can be expected as a result of this depends on what has been happening in the market, and what has been happening with the indicator. If the market and the MACD are both coming off of recent new highs then this could be considered a strong signal. If the market is simply trading in a weak trend or range and the MACD has simply crossed from just above to just below the zero line, then this would be considered a weak signal.

Example of a Bullish and Bearish Signal Line Cross:


As with all of the indicators that we are learning about in this series it is normally better to trade the MACD along with other confirming signals such some of the things we have learned so far like trend lines, chart patterns, and breaks of significant support resistance levels.

That completes our lesson for today. You should now have a good understanding of the MACD and situations where it helps traders predict future price action and how it can be used to place trades.

As always I encourage your questions and comments so please leave them in the comments section below, and have a great day!

http://www.informedtrades.com/ A lesson on how to trade the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in the stock, futures, and forex markets.

The indicator, which was developed by Gerald Appel, is constructed by taking a 12 period exponential moving average of a financial instrument and subtracting its 26 period exponential moving average. The resulting line is then plotted below the price chart and fluctuates above and below a center line which is placed at value zero. A 9 period EMA of the MACD line is normally plotted along with the MACD line and used as a signal of potential trading opportunities in the stock, futures and forex markets.

When the MACD line is above zero this tells the trader that the 12 period exponential moving average is trading above the 26 period exponential moving averages. When the MACD line is below zero this tells the trader that the 12 period exponential moving average is below the 26 period exponential moving average. Traders will watch the MACD line as when it is above zero and rising this is a sign that the positive gap between the 12 and 26 EMA's is widening, a sign of increasing bullish momentum in the financial instrument they are analyzing. Conversely when the MACD line is below zero and falling this represents a widening in the negative gap between the 12 and 26 day EMA's, a sign of increasing bearish momentum in the financial instrument they are analyzing.

The purpose of the 9 period exponential moving average line is to further confirm bullish changes in momentum when the MACD crosses above this line and bearish changes in momentum when the MACD crosses below this line.

Example of the Signal Line

Lastly many traders and charting packages will plot a histogram along with the MACD which is representative of the distance between the MACD and its signal line. When the MACD histogram is above zero (the MACD line is above the signal line) this is an indication that positive momentum is increasing. Conversely when the MACD histogram is below zero this is an indication that negative momentum is increasing.

When the MACD histogram is above zero (the MACD line is above the signal line) this is an indication that positive momentum is increasing. Conversely when the MACD histogram is below zero this is an indication that negative momentum is increasing. The higher or lower the histogram goes above or below zero the greater the momentum of the trend is thought to be.

That completes this lesson. You should now have a good understanding of the different components that make up the MACD indicator. In our next lesson we are going to go over some of the different ways that traders use the MACD in their trading so we hope to see you in that lesson.

As always if you have any questions or comments please leave them in the comments section below, and have a great day!

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